A very interesting webinar today with great presentations from David Edwards (Scattered Clouds) Joss Croft (UKInbound) Stuart Heath (VB/VE) and chaired by Tom Jenkins (ETOA). Some of the many comments made included :
UK has recovered 90% of its tourism traffic since 2019 with USA leading at 21% up, Canada 14% up and Poland 5% up on 2019.However this has to be balanced with the decline from China which is 86% down still, Italy 25% down, France 15% down and Germany 14% down.
Asia should recover 2024 by 59% but hotel availability to match demand is of concern.
India GDP is growing strongly at 7.2% whilst the EU is sluggish with German expecting a 2024 recession.
The shape of the return of tourism will be affected by geopolitical environment (conflict in Middle East and Russia/Ukraine, recent activities in the Red Sea), the Olympics and Paralympics in Paris July/August 2024, the global economic crisis, the UK & USA election (though the old adage of USA not travelling in an election has diminished during the last 2 elections).
A recent UKinbound survey has shown members are 75% confident the Q1 next year will be strong and above 2019 numbers.
